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1Fortune Bags Empty Fortune Bags on Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:43 am

Skidz


Now we talking
Now we talking
After my UM got deleted (which i will be seeing back monday Razz )
I didn't know what to do.
So i took my HM warrior and farmed my ass of in AR for 8 hrs.

Result: 240 FB's

I Decided to make a list of the drops and so:

-LinkingHammers:
-LH7: 3
-LH6: 6
-LH5: 10
-LH4: 10
-LH3: 10
-LH2: 8
-LH1: 7

-FireCrackers:
-Conquest: 6
-Love: 5
-Victory: 3
-ButterFly: 1

Lapis:Fortune5(x2),Fortune4(x2),Assault5(x2),Assault4(x2),Vigor5(x1),Vigor4(x1),Craft4(x1),Shrewd5(x1),Shrewd4(x1),Forbid4(x1)and Wit4(x1)


Remedy's:
Health(500hp): 11
(700hp): 2
(1700hp): 1
Mana(500mp): 9
(800mp): 2
(1920mp): 2
Stamina(500sp):10
(1800sp): 1

Luc(15): 1
(35): 2
Dex(35): 2
Str(20): 1
Wis(20): 3
(45): 1
Rec(15): 3
Int(20): 3
(45): 2

Ress Runes:
-Normal: 5
-Cont:-3hrs: 10
-6hrs: 1
-7day: 1

Runes:
-WH recall: 3
-Move: 3
-Capital: 1
-Bootlegg: 2
-Tele: 3
-Arena: 5

Random Crap:
-1hr Exp: 4
-Small Extract hammer: 8
-Etain Pots: 11
-Worker Ress lvl 3: 11
-DBW: 5
-Repair Hammer: 2
-PiD 1day: 6
-Gold Increase 1hr: 6
-Gold Increase 7day: 1

Equipement:
-Legend God Finger: 1
-Goddes Tarkin: 1


So that was that...
I'm a little disappointed in the amount of goddes i got from 240 FB's... (1!!!)
But atleast i got more then 10 firecrackers cheers
scratch

EDIT: Lol the droprate of goddes is 4%, i should normally have 9
Unlucky or what?

2Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:19 am

[GA]rink245

[GA]rink245
Game Ambassador
Game Ambassador
It's good gear. Just because they can drop from FB's it doesn't mean you will always get some. I had over 300 FB's at one point and didn't get a single drop. So yeah unlucky =P

And I'm shocked that you only got around 15 firecrackers. I usually get 30+ in a big FB run

3Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:29 am

Skidz


Now we talking
Now we talking
rink245 wrote:It's good gear. Just because they can drop from FB's it doesn't mean you will always get some. I had over 300 FB's at one point and didn't get a single drop. So yeah unlucky =P

And I'm shocked that you only got around 15 firecrackers. I usually get 30+ in a big FB run
Still sucks tho

was hoping on goddes adamas/ogherton top or Goddes IP's
>.<
but naaaah Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

4Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:35 am

[GA]rink245

[GA]rink245
Game Ambassador
Game Ambassador
I bet the goddess you did get wasn't even good stated lol

5Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:44 am

Skidz


Now we talking
Now we talking
rink245 wrote:I bet the goddess you did get wasn't even good stated lol

36+4 Luc
+7 Dex
+15 Rec

6Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:29 pm

regix

regix
Tipsy is my idol
Tipsy is my idol
uh Goddess drop is 4% from each bag so therefore it's not 4 out of 100 as most think it is but more of like 4/10000 due to probability chances stacking up so it's something greater than just 100 fortune bags ur probably'll get 4 goddess (if that makes any sense)

7Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 12:39 pm

UberGoober

UberGoober
Am i making any sense??
Am i making any sense??
Well, okay, without getting TOO convoluted when it comes to % drops...

4% means you have a 4/100 chance PER bag.

meaning, out of 100 numbers, let's say 1,7,29,56 are Goddess, and the rest are non-goddess...
The "filter" per-se doesn't start with number(n), and follow a progressive pattern ((n+1)=t=g). t=/= either goddess(g)or other items(o).

so, the pattern most of you assume is:
(n+1)=g [if n>100 ; then n=0]
at one point or another.
the rest of the time you are assuming:
(n+1)=o [if n>100 ; then n=0]

The true issue is:

(n*.04)=100-(n*.96)= g OR o [if n>100 ; then n=0]

therefore, it is possible to open 100 FB's and get 100 goddess, or 1000000 FB's and get 0 goddess.

(This is not a full-on equation, just a simple one to help alleviate the stress that people get from opening "a lot" of fortune bags and not getting the "right percentage" of goddess, or whatever item they want).

In reality, ALSO
let's say
with a new formula, to further explain:
(note, before reading, please take notice that there are FAR more than 26 DIFFERENT drops from these bags, even just going with:
RES RUNES (all types = 1 drop)
LV5 lapis (all types = 1 drop)
Fireworks (all types = 1 drop)
LV4 lapis (all types = 1 drop)
*this furthers my point*


Res Rune=4%
LV5 lapis=4%
LV4 lapis=4%
Linking Hammer=4%
WH Recall=4%
Teleportation Stone=4%
Bootleg Rune=4%
Capital Rune=4%
Arena Rune=4%
Goddess=4%
Movement/Summon Rune=4%
Gold Increases=4%
Remedies=4%
PiD=4%
Fireworks=4%
Legend=4%
Mini-Noss all LV=4%
EXP Stones=4%
Etain Pot=4%
Repair Hammer=4%
DBW=4%
Extraction Hammer=4%
Worker Restoration=4%
Item I can't think of, as I'm tired=4%
Item I can't think of, as I'm tired=4%

Now, note: this is 25 VERY unique items... not counting all the different TYPES of Linking Hammers, Res Runes, Fireworks, Exp Stones, Etc. so... allot for the last 2 slots of "unfilled info" to be whatever you imagine them to be
Also, note, these OBV aren't true percentages, but just bear with me...

now, 25 items at 4% (which there are FAR more than 25 different drops)... is 100%, right?

So, even if ALL items were equal to, or LESS THAN goddess drop rate (which has been stated to be at 4%), why are we obviously seeing more of them?
1) All the other items % is obviously higher than 4% for each type of drop
2) If #1 is true, then that makes all the % totals = OVER 100%... therefore, you don't have the X-in-100 chance of getting a given drop, you have a formula far closer to what I previously posted.

Is this a lil more helpful?

http://www.WPTAPL.com

8Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:56 pm

[GM]Tipsy

[GM]Tipsy
Admin
Admin
UberGoober wrote:Well, okay, without getting TOO convoluted when it comes to % drops...

4% means you have a 4/100 chance PER bag.

meaning, out of 100 numbers, let's say 1,7,29,56 are Goddess, and the rest are non-goddess...
The "filter" per-se doesn't start with number(n), and follow a progressive pattern ((n+1)=t=g). t=/= either goddess(g)or other items(o).

so, the pattern most of you assume is:
(n+1)=g [if n>100 ; then n=0]
at one point or another.
the rest of the time you are assuming:
(n+1)=o [if n>100 ; then n=0]

The true issue is:

(n*.04)=100-(n*.96)= g OR o [if n>100 ; then n=0]

therefore, it is possible to open 100 FB's and get 100 goddess, or 1000000 FB's and get 0 goddess.

(This is not a full-on equation, just a simple one to help alleviate the stress that people get from opening "a lot" of fortune bags and not getting the "right percentage" of goddess, or whatever item they want).

In reality, ALSO
let's say
with a new formula, to further explain:
(note, before reading, please take notice that there are FAR more than 26 DIFFERENT drops from these bags, even just going with:
RES RUNES (all types = 1 drop)
LV5 lapis (all types = 1 drop)
Fireworks (all types = 1 drop)
LV4 lapis (all types = 1 drop)
*this furthers my point*


Res Rune=4%
LV5 lapis=4%
LV4 lapis=4%
Linking Hammer=4%
WH Recall=4%
Teleportation Stone=4%
Bootleg Rune=4%
Capital Rune=4%
Arena Rune=4%
Goddess=4%
Movement/Summon Rune=4%
Gold Increases=4%
Remedies=4%
PiD=4%
Fireworks=4%
Legend=4%
Mini-Noss all LV=4%
EXP Stones=4%
Etain Pot=4%
Repair Hammer=4%
DBW=4%
Extraction Hammer=4%
Worker Restoration=4%
Item I can't think of, as I'm tired=4%
Item I can't think of, as I'm tired=4%

Now, note: this is 25 VERY unique items... not counting all the different TYPES of Linking Hammers, Res Runes, Fireworks, Exp Stones, Etc. so... allot for the last 2 slots of "unfilled info" to be whatever you imagine them to be
Also, note, these OBV aren't true percentages, but just bear with me...

now, 25 items at 4% (which there are FAR more than 25 different drops)... is 100%, right?

So, even if ALL items were equal to, or LESS THAN goddess drop rate (which has been stated to be at 4%), why are we obviously seeing more of them?
1) All the other items % is obviously higher than 4% for each type of drop
2) If #1 is true, then that makes all the % totals = OVER 100%... therefore, you don't have the X-in-100 chance of getting a given drop, you have a formula far closer to what I previously posted.

Is this a lil more helpful?

........ look a bunny rabbit


_______________________________________________________________
Regards,
Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Tipsy
siggi by Faith Very Happy
http://battle-for-dwater.net16.net/

9Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:59 pm

[GA]rink245

[GA]rink245
Game Ambassador
Game Ambassador
Haha someone has ADD. Anyway Uber that is a great explanation of how FB's work.

10Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:57 pm

UberGoober

UberGoober
Am i making any sense??
Am i making any sense??
Well, I just want people to understand a little more how the % chance works... That, and it helps me wake up when I start doing math Very Happy

http://www.WPTAPL.com

11Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:06 pm

[GM]Tipsy

[GM]Tipsy
Admin
Admin
UberGoober wrote:Well, I just want people to understand a little more how the % chance works... That, and it helps me wake up when I start doing math Very Happy
nooooooooooooooooooooo y would you do math to try wake up Shocked

have a jagerbomb or a shot of vodka. i always find that those help me to wake up Very Happy


_______________________________________________________________
Regards,
Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Tipsy
siggi by Faith Very Happy
http://battle-for-dwater.net16.net/

12Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:25 pm

[GA]rink245

[GA]rink245
Game Ambassador
Game Ambassador
ADD definitely referring to a certain GM whose post is above mine

13Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

[GM]Tipsy

[GM]Tipsy
Admin
Admin
[GA]rink245 wrote:ADD definitely referring to a certain GM whose post is above mine
Oi im watching you Suspect


_______________________________________________________________
Regards,
Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Tipsy
siggi by Faith Very Happy
http://battle-for-dwater.net16.net/

14Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:04 pm

[GA]rink245

[GA]rink245
Game Ambassador
Game Ambassador
[GM]Tipsy wrote:
[GA]rink245 wrote:ADD definitely referring to a certain GM whose post is above mine
Oi im watching you Suspect

I'm watching you too Suspect

15Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:06 pm

[GM]Tipsy

[GM]Tipsy
Admin
Admin
[GA]rink245 wrote:
[GM]Tipsy wrote:
[GA]rink245 wrote:ADD definitely referring to a certain GM whose post is above mine
Oi im watching you Suspect

I'm watching you too Suspect
you had me at hello


_______________________________________________________________
Regards,
Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Tipsy
siggi by Faith Very Happy
http://battle-for-dwater.net16.net/

16Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Fri Jul 23, 2010 12:26 am

UberGoober

UberGoober
Am i making any sense??
Am i making any sense??
But... But... Math is your friend...

I do agree with the vodka, however... Svedka or Ketel One FTW!

http://www.WPTAPL.com

17Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:11 am

M35H

M35H
Am i making any sense??
Am i making any sense??
UberGoober wrote:Well, okay, without getting TOO convoluted when it comes to % drops...

4% means you have a 4/100 chance PER bag.

meaning, out of 100 numbers, let's say 1,7,29,56 are Goddess, and the rest are non-goddess...
The "filter" per-se doesn't start with number(n), and follow a progressive pattern ((n+1)=t=g). t=/= either goddess(g)or other items(o).

so, the pattern most of you assume is:
(n+1)=g [if n>100 ; then n=0]
at one point or another.
the rest of the time you are assuming:
(n+1)=o [if n>100 ; then n=0]

The true issue is:

(n*.04)=100-(n*.96)= g OR o [if n>100 ; then n=0]

therefore, it is possible to open 100 FB's and get 100 goddess, or 1000000 FB's and get 0 goddess.

(This is not a full-on equation, just a simple one to help alleviate the stress that people get from opening "a lot" of fortune bags and not getting the "right percentage" of goddess, or whatever item they want).

In reality, ALSO
let's say
with a new formula, to further explain:
(note, before reading, please take notice that there are FAR more than 26 DIFFERENT drops from these bags, even just going with:
RES RUNES (all types = 1 drop)
LV5 lapis (all types = 1 drop)
Fireworks (all types = 1 drop)
LV4 lapis (all types = 1 drop)
*this furthers my point*


Res Rune=4%
LV5 lapis=4%
LV4 lapis=4%
Linking Hammer=4%
WH Recall=4%
Teleportation Stone=4%
Bootleg Rune=4%
Capital Rune=4%
Arena Rune=4%
Goddess=4%
Movement/Summon Rune=4%
Gold Increases=4%
Remedies=4%
PiD=4%
Fireworks=4%
Legend=4%
Mini-Noss all LV=4%
EXP Stones=4%
Etain Pot=4%
Repair Hammer=4%
DBW=4%
Extraction Hammer=4%
Worker Restoration=4%
Item I can't think of, as I'm tired=4%
Item I can't think of, as I'm tired=4%

Now, note: this is 25 VERY unique items... not counting all the different TYPES of Linking Hammers, Res Runes, Fireworks, Exp Stones, Etc. so... allot for the last 2 slots of "unfilled info" to be whatever you imagine them to be
Also, note, these OBV aren't true percentages, but just bear with me...

now, 25 items at 4% (which there are FAR more than 25 different drops)... is 100%, right?

So, even if ALL items were equal to, or LESS THAN goddess drop rate (which has been stated to be at 4%), why are we obviously seeing more of them?
1) All the other items % is obviously higher than 4% for each type of drop
2) If #1 is true, then that makes all the % totals = OVER 100%... therefore, you don't have the X-in-100 chance of getting a given drop, you have a formula far closer to what I previously posted.

Is this a lil more helpful?

clown

I do want to apologize, i think my brain farted after reading this. It does amaze me how of you go the the depths to come up with some of these calculations and I applaud you for that. I hope you didnt sticky it from someplace else, lol.

Remeber, in the realm of dwater and you find yourself dead looking up URANUS, you will realize I just killed you in game.

Your humble servant

URNAUS

18Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:42 am

[GM]PierceME

[GM]PierceME
Admin
Admin
UberGoober wrote:But... But... Math is your friend...

I do agree with the vodka, however... Svedka or Ketel One FTW!

omg kinda sexy. I use Red Bull and loud music to wake up....


_______________________________________________________________
Regards, [GM]PierceMe Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Pierce10

19Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:04 am

UberGoober

UberGoober
Am i making any sense??
Am i making any sense??
Haha to both posts above me.

I analyze a lot of things with numbers. If anyone has any questions about things like that, I'm always willing to provide the numerical proof thereof, in a basic sense (as the in-depth answer would usually need one of two things: 1) The full set of information, ie: the ACTUAL statistics/numbers (which a basic answer can use any numbers to make a point); or 2) an overly complex forumula/answer... in which case most people would either get confused and/or it would really be a waste of time instead of just providing basics tongue .

Anyway, I know u love me pierce. Alas, since you live so far away, and I play online games with my wife... Shocked
You can be my super-secret love. Tipsy would provide the drinks for the cause, as I'm sure there's plenty :p

http://www.WPTAPL.com

20Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:00 pm

[GM]Tipsy

[GM]Tipsy
Admin
Admin
UberGoober wrote:Haha to both posts above me.

I analyze a lot of things with numbers. If anyone has any questions about things like that, I'm always willing to provide the numerical proof thereof, in a basic sense (as the in-depth answer would usually need one of two things: 1) The full set of information, ie: the ACTUAL statistics/numbers (which a basic answer can use any numbers to make a point); or 2) an overly complex forumula/answer... in which case most people would either get confused and/or it would really be a waste of time instead of just providing basics tongue .

Anyway, I know u love me pierce. Alas, since you live so far away, and I play online games with my wife... Shocked
You can be my super-secret love. Tipsy would provide the drinks for the cause, as I'm sure there's plenty :p

Pierce is alll mine. and so is the booooozzzzzeeeeeeeeeee. my precious boooozzzzeeee drunken


_______________________________________________________________
Regards,
Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Tipsy
siggi by Faith Very Happy
http://battle-for-dwater.net16.net/

21Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Sat Jul 24, 2010 8:33 am

UberGoober

UberGoober
Am i making any sense??
Am i making any sense??
/derail

If you had to choose? which would it be?

http://www.WPTAPL.com

22Fortune Bags Empty Re: Fortune Bags on Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:33 am

[GM]Tipsy

[GM]Tipsy
Admin
Admin
UberGoober wrote:/derail

If you had to choose? which would it be?
well one leads to the other. So i dont have to choose Very Happy


_______________________________________________________________
Regards,
Battle for DWater Team
Fortune Bags Tipsy
siggi by Faith Very Happy
http://battle-for-dwater.net16.net/

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